The GBP/USD pair consolidates around 1.3360 on Thursday amid heightened tensions in the Middle East, as US President Donald Trump exerts pressure on Iran to reach a deal. Solid US jobs data maintained the status quo, which remains controlled by geopolitics.
TD Securities expects UK Retail Sales for February to decline, projecting -0.6% month-on-month versus the market’s -0.7% and January’s 1.8%. They bank attributes the pullback to fading idiosyncratic supports and adverse weather weighing on physical store traffic.
United States Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity: 11 (March) vs 10
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight that USD/CAD continues to grind higher as haven demand for the US Dollar dominates, with the pair trading well above an estimated fair value of 1.3543.
AUD/USD trades around 0.6920 on Thursday at the time of writing, down 0.35% on the day, and remains close to its monthly lows amid a bearish consolidation phase. The pair struggles to stage any meaningful rebound as the US Dollar (USD) continues to draw solid support.
United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change below forecasts (-49B) in March 20: Actual (-54B)
ING strategists Michiel Tukker and Benjamin Schroeder note that markets continue to price two to three European Central Bank (ECB) rate hikes in 2026, with April odds still elevated. They stress that the ECB must balance data dependence with managing expectations along the curve.
BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage notes that the central bank of Germany, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel has opened the door to an April European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike if Middle East‑driven energy prices elevate inflation risks.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, holds firm on Thursday as the US Dollar remains well supported amid ongoing geopolitical tensions surrounding the US-Israel war with Iran.
TD Securities’ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali warns that Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) are likely to sell Gold unless prices stage a strong rebound in the coming week.
HSBC Global Research expects New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to stay under pressure versus USD in coming weeks, even as markets price further Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) tightening over 12 months.
South Africa SARB Interest Rate Decision meets expectations (6.75%)
