MUFG’s Lloyd Chan flags India’s April Consumer Price Index (CPI) release as a key risk for the Indian Rupee (INR), with higher energy prices and a softer currency building inflation tailwinds. He sees upside risks versus the 3.8% consensus and warns this could force further Reserve Bank of India (RBI) tightening to contain inflation and support INR. Chan adds USD/INR could post its highest weekly close on record if these risks materialize.

Inflation risks and Rupee vulnerability

"India’s April CPI data is due today."

"Inflation tailwinds are building amid higher energy prices and a softer rupee, raising the risk that the RBI may need to tighten policy further to contain inflation and support the currency."

"We see upside risks to April CPI relative to the market consensus of 3.8%yoy."

"If such upside risks materialize, USD/INR could register its highest weekly close on record."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)