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Crude Oil spends Monday selling the war, then buys the revenge post
Crude Oil compressed its entire 2026 personality into a single Monday tape.
Asia FX: Oil rebound pressures INR and THB – MUFG
MUFG’s Lloyd Chan highlights that higher Oil prices and persistent inflation risks are weighing on Asian currencies, with the Indian Rupee (INR) and Thai Baht (THB) underperforming against the US Dollar.
Brent: Geopolitics support crude and cracks – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem highlight that Brent has surged as US-Iran tensions, Trump’s rhetoric and Houthi blockade threats lift risk premia. Crack spreads in Asia and US have outperformed as refined products stay tighter than crude.
Brent: Geopolitics support crude and cracks – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem highlight that Brent has surged as US-Iran tensions, Trump’s rhetoric and Houthi blockade threats lift risk premia. Crack spreads in Asia and US have outperformed as refined products stay tighter than crude.
Canadian Dollar under pressure as softer inflation meets firmer US Dollar
USD/CAD edges higher on Monday as softer-than-expected Canadian inflation data and a firmer US Dollar (USD) weigh on the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while tensions in the Middle East keep financial markets volatile. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.4045, up 0.17% on the day.
Oil: Diplomatic risk keeps prices supported – BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that Iran’s signals of continued military response alongside active mediation keep the Middle East conflict in a managed but unstable phase.
Houthis declare naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, raising Middle East tensions
Yemen's Houthis announced on Monday a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, according to a statement reported by Reuters.
European Central Bank: Oil risks support a September rate hike – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s rates team expects higher oil prices and weak growth signals to shape Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. A July rate hike is effectively ruled out, while markets have fully priced in another 25bp move in September.
Oil: Geopolitical shocks tighten crude and diesel markets – Rabobank
Rabobank says renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, Russia-Ukraine strikes and CPC loading disruptions have lifted crude and refining margins sharply. Brent briefly topped $90, while severe diesel-market tightness is feeding through to export policy and U.S. pump prices.
WTI Oil rally takes a breather as Tehran leaves the door open to diplomacy
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil trades around $81.30 on Monday at the time of writing, down 0.54% on the day as investors take some profits following the commodity's sharp rally in recent weeks.
Brent: Energy risks rise with Hormuz tensions – Rabobank
Rabobank’s RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets team highlights that Brent Oil trading near $90 and elevated crack spreads underscore tight energy conditions as geopolitical risks escalate around Iran and Hormuz.
Euro: Energy and spreads shape near-term path – ING
ING’s Chris Turner highlights that with Brent above $90, EUR/USD might normally trade below 1.14, but tighter correlation between energy and short-dated Euro swap rates is offering support.
Canadian Dollar holds near monthly highs with Inflation data in the spotlight
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) holds gains near one-month highs against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday.