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Australian Dollar: Jobs strength keeps RBA hike priced – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes AUD/USD is consolidating near 0.7000 after strong Australia employment data. Solid June job gains keep Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hike expectations alive, with cash rate futures now virtually fully pricing a move to 4.60% by year‑end.
Euro: ECB seen hiking in September – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke argues the European Central Bank (ECB) can delay action today but will keep a hawkish tone as inflation stays near 3% and core pressures may even rise.
Norwegian Krone: Limited upside from Norges Bank flows – BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu argues that while Norwegian Krone (NOK) should find demand from improved Oil and gas terms of trade and a relatively hawkish Norges Bank, elevated holdings and modest FX purchases limit upside.
Swiss Franc weakens as safe-haven demand lifts US Dollar
USD/CHF extends its gains for the fourth successive day, trading around 0.8150 during the European hours on Thursday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground after recovering its daily losses amid rising geopolitical tensions between the United States (US)-and Iran.
Analysts agree: Hawkish ECB expectations are likely to keep Euro supported
The Euro (EUR) remains steady above 1.1400 against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, showing a surprising resilience to the surging Oil prices and the escalation of hostilities in the Middle East.
Japanese Yen: Energy shock drives weaker currency – MUFG
MUFG’s Lee Hardman highlights that rising Oil and natural gas prices are pressuring the Japanese Yen (JPY), with USD/JPY hitting fresh year-to-date highs above 163.00.
Australian Dollar: RBA tone may turn hawkish – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur highlights a strong Australian labor market, with 76,000 jobs added and participation back near historic highs, prompting markets to raise the implied probability of an RBA hike to 30%.
US Secretary of State Rubio warns of intensifying military attacks on Iran
United States (US) Secretary of State Marco Rubio warns that military attacks on Iran could intensify further, as the nation is not ready to make a deal.
China FDI - Foreign Direct Investment (YTD) (YoY) up to -5% in June from previous -8.6%
China FDI - Foreign Direct Investment (YTD) (YoY) up to -5% in June from previous -8.6%
British Pound: Sterling to hand back gains – ING
ING analysts Chris Turner, Francesco Pesole and James Smith argue Sterling’s summer strength is driven by positioning, carry and possible M&A flows rather than UK fundamentals.
NZD/USD Price Forecast: Tests levels sub-0.5800 as bulls run out of steam
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extends losses for the third consecutive day against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, with the NZD/USD pair dipping below 0.5800, after being rejected at the 0.5875 area earlier in the week.
South African Rand: Hawkish SARB could strengthen ZAR – Societe Generale
Societe Generale strategists expect a 25bp rate hike in South Africa after a sharp June inflation surprise, with Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 5.0% and core at 4.1%.
Forex Today: Focus shifts to ECB rate call, while tensions remain high in Middle East
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, July 23: