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Australian Dollar jumps as Yen struggles with Japan’s fiscal woes
AUD/JPY rises 0.70% on Monday and trades around 112.25 at the time of writing. The pair benefits from broad weakness in the Japanese Yen (JPY), while the Australian Dollar (AUD) holds firm ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy decision on Tuesday.
Japanese Yen: Faces risk of return to 160 against US Dollar – ING
ING’s Francesco Pesole highlights that softer United States (US) data and a more dovish Fed outlook should, in theory, benefit the Japanese Yen (JPY) given its high rate sensitivity.
Euro: Softer CPI may unlock 1.1600 against US Dollar – ING
ING’s Francesco Pesole notes that with key Eurozone data behind and European Central Bank (ECB) communication subdued, EUR/USD is now driven mainly by the United States (US) side.
British Pound rises against Japanese Yen as intervention impact fades
GBP/JPY edges higher on Monday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) underperforms across the G10 currency space, with structural headwinds limiting the impact of recent intervention. At the time of writing, the cross trades around 214.70, up 0.85% on the day.
Hungarian Forint: Recovery against Euro may resume – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose notes that the Hungarian Forint (HUF) has only partially retraced its post-election gains and is expected to recover if global risk conditions stabilise, with EUR/HUF seen returning towards 350–355 in coming months.
Australian Dollar: Uptrend targets 0.7120 against US Dollar – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux notes AUD/USD has defended its 200-DMA and established a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, signalling a short-term uptrend.
Japanese Yen: Rate spread outlook favors JPY against US Dollar – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that JPY is underperforming as firmer Oil prices support USD/JPY, while the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) latest meeting minutes did little to shift rate expectations.
Copper: Weak China imports contrast with bullish positioning - ING
ING strategists Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson highlight that China’s latest trade data show continued weakness in copper imports, with unwrought volumes down 11.5% year-on-year and concentrate flows also softer.
Euro: Modest upside bias against US Dollar as Fed repricing – Rabobank
Rabıobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley discusses recent EUR/USD strength, noting it was mainly driven by a softer Dollar after weak United States (US) labour data reduced Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike expectations.
Australian Dollar: RBA policy pause maintained – TD Securities
TD Securities strategists expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, noting that policy is already restrictive and that Australian activity, particularly housing, is slowing in response to earlier hikes.
Japanese Yen: BoJ tightening risks support JPY – BNY
BNY’s Wee Khoon Chong highlights that long-end JGB yields are rising on inflation and fiscal concerns, with markets pricing a roughly 50% chance of a 25bp BoJ hike in September and a full hike by year-end.
Norwegian Krone: Rate hike odds slashed after soft inflation – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that Norwegian Krone (NOK) is trading mixed as firmer Oil offsets the drag from reduced Norges Bank tightening expectations.
Canadian Dollar steadies, caught between risk aversion, rebounding Oil prices
USD/CAD trades around 1.3940 on Monday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day after falling sharply on Friday.