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OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note the Australian Dollar recovered after the RBA’s 5–4 split decision to deliver a second consecutive 25bp hike to 4.10%, with Governor Bullock’s remarks seen as hawkish. They maintain a call for another 25bp hike to 4.35% in May and expect continued AUD outperformance versus NZD, CAD and GBP, helped by Australia’s net energy exporter status.
"The AUD recovered after initial volatility following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 5–4 split decision to deliver a second consecutive 25bp hike to 4.10%."
"Markets interpreted Governor Bullock’s press conference as hawkish, especially her clarification that dissenting votes reflected timing preferences—some members favoured waiting until May—rather than disagreement over the policy path."
"Bullock highlighted rising inflation expectation risks, with domestic price pressures compounded by the surge in oil prices driven by Middle East tensions."
"We maintain our call for another 25bp hike to 4.35% in May."
"As a net energy exporter, Australia stands to benefit indirectly from higher oil prices, leaving the AUD better positioned than many. We expect continued AUD outperformance, particularly against risk‑sensitive currencies such as the NZD, CAD and GBP."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note the Australian Dollar recovered after the RBA’s 5–4 split decision to deliver a second consecutive 25bp hike to 4.10%, with Governor Bullock’s remarks seen as hawkish.
Societe Generale economists expect the BoC to keep its policy rate at 2.25%, despite weaker employment and lower CPI. Markets now price about 33 bps of tightening by year-end after the Iran conflict.
USD/JPY remains under pressure for a third straight session, trading near 159.00 during Asian hours on Wednesday.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% at its Wednesday meeting, effectively extending the pause it signalled back in January.
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny expects the FOMC to keep policy options open, with limited changes to the Summary of Economic Projections and no alteration to the median dot profile. MUFG anticipates balanced Fed communication and subdued FX and rates volatility.
ING commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey report that Gold is trading in a narrow range as the US‑Israeli conflict with Iran extends. A firmer Dollar and higher real yields offset safe‑haven demand from Middle East tensions.
Danske Research Team highlights that USD/CAD remains confined between 1.36 and 1.37 as risk-off sentiment offsets support from Canada’s net energy exporter status.
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美国西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）作为美国原油基准，在周三早盘亚洲交易时段交易价格约为95.00美元。随着中东冲突加剧和严重的供应中断，WTI 价格上涨。