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OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong revise their Brent Oil profile higher as the US–Iran conflict keeps the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut and Oil flows near a standstill. They now expect Brent to trade around USD100/bbl through mid-2026 before easing towards USD70/bbl by early 2027, warning that persistent shipping paralysis could turn temporary disruptions into lasting supply losses.
"No clear path to de-escalation as the US–Iran conflict enters week three; limited vessel movement keeps the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut and oil flows at a near standstill."
"We revise Brent forecast higher, with prices staying elevated at around USD100/bbl through mid-year before easing towards USD70/bbl by early 2027."
"Persistent shipping paralysis is forcing Gulf output shut ins, raising the risk that short lived disruptions turn into durable supply losses."
"Mitigating measures still leave a sizable gap, with up to 10mb/d of offsets unable to fully counter a prolonged Strait shutdown."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong revise their Brent Oil profile higher as the US–Iran conflict keeps the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut and Oil flows near a standstill.
The NZD/USD pair strives to extend its recovery move above 0.5870 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The Kiwi trades higher as the US Dollar (USD) struggles to gain ground ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement at 18:00 GMT.
TD Securities stategists expect the Bank of Canada to keep its overnight rate at 2.25% with a cautious tone, as growth and inflation run below projections. They highlights elevated uncertainty and new inflation risks from the Iran conflict and higher Oil prices.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is extending its losing streak for the third successive session and trading around 99.50 during the early European hours on Wednesday.
Silver price (XAG/USD) holds positive ground near $79.90 during the early European session on Wednesday. Escalating tensions in the Middle East push demand toward safe-haven assets like silver.
The Indian Rupee (INR) posts a fresh all-time low against the US Dollar (USD) at 93.00 during India's afternoon trading hours on Wednesday.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% at its Wednesday meeting, effectively extending the pause it signalled back in January.
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny expects the FOMC to keep policy options open, with limited changes to the Summary of Economic Projections and no alteration to the median dot profile. MUFG anticipates balanced Fed communication and subdued FX and rates volatility.
ING commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey report that Gold is trading in a narrow range as the US‑Israeli conflict with Iran extends. A firmer Dollar and higher real yields offset safe‑haven demand from Middle East tensions.