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Gold (XAU/USD) sticks to a negative bias for the third straight day, though it lacks follow-through selling and remains confined in the previous day's broader range through the early European session on Tuesday. Hopes for a last-minute agreement between the US and Iran are fading ahead of President Donald Trump’s Tuesday evening deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This benefits the US Dollar's (USD) global reserve currency status and undermines the commodity. Adding to this, bets for higher interest rates globally turn out to be another factor exerting some pressure on the non-yielding yellow metal and back the case for further losses.
Investors now seem convinced that the war-driven surge in energy prices would revive inflationary pressures and force major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed), to adopt a more hawkish stance. In fact, Crude Oil prices advanced to a four-week top after Trump heightened his rhetoric against Iran and threatened to decimate civilian infrastructure if the deadline passed without a deal. In response, the advisor to Iran's Parliament Speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, emphasized that Iran will not back down and said that Trump has about 20 hours to either surrender or his allies will return to the Paleolithic Age. This raises the risk of a further escalation of conflicts in the Middle East and remains supportive of elevated Crude Oil prices.
Meanwhile, data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed on Monday that the Services PMI fell short of market expectations and eased to 54 in March from 56.1 in the previous month. pointing to some loss of momentum. Additional details of the report revealed that inflation pressures gathered traction, with the Prices Paid Index edging higher to 70.7 from 63. This comes on top of the upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report last Friday, which signaled a resilient labor market, and boosted bets that the Fed will hold rates higher for longer to combat inflation. The outlook, in turn, favors the USD bulls and suggests that the path of least resistance for the Gold price is to the downside. Traders now look to the US macro data for a fresh impetus.
The near-term bias is mildly bearish as the XAU/USD pair holds below the downward-sloping 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains negative with the line below the signal and hovering around the zero line, which suggests lingering downside pressure but without strong momentum. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 49 shows neutral momentum, aligning with a consolidative tone within a broader downside context.
Immediate resistance emerges near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the March downfall, at $4,607, and a sustained break above would open the way toward the $4,763, or the 50.0% retracement level. As long as the Gold price trades below that latter barrier and the distant 200-period SMA, rallies are exposed to selling on strength. On the downside, initial support is seen around the recent $4,600 swing area, with a break lower exposing the 23.6% Fibo. The retracement level is the $4,416 as the next bearish target, where dip-buying interest could attempt to stabilize the previous metal.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
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Gold (XAU/USD) sticks to a negative bias for the third straight day, though it lacks follow-through selling and remains confined in the previous day's broader range through the early European session on Tuesday.
以下是您需要了解的4月7日星期二的要点
布朗兄弟哈里曼（BBH）的埃利亚斯·哈达德预计加拿大3月份劳动力调查将显示就业小幅反弹，而加拿大央行（BoC）可以利用其温和的通胀背景来忽视油价冲击。
西班牙 三月 HCOB Services PMI好于预期50.8：实际值(53.3)
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, April 7:
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects Canada’s March labor force survey to show a modest job rebound, while the Bank of Canada (BoC) can use its benign inflation backdrop to look through the Oil shock.
The NZD/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's modest gains and trades with a negative bias around the 0.5700 mark during the early European session on Tuesday.
纽元/美元货币对难以利用前一天的温和涨幅，在周二欧洲时段早盘于0.5700附近承压，呈现出下行偏向。
华侨银行策略师黄志伟和沈慕祥指出，随着霍尔木兹海峡风险和能源中断威胁演变为更广泛的能源冲击，全球市场保持谨慎。调查数据显示，投入成本上升，交货时间延长。