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美元:降级局势被视为美元趋势走软 – 华侨银行

大华银行(OCBC)策略师黄志伟和沈慕祥指出,随着霍尔木兹海峡风险和能源中断威胁演变为更广泛的能源冲击,全球市场保持谨慎。调查数据显示,投入成本上升和交货时间延长。他们认为,中东地区可信的降级局势可能支持全球风险资产和非美国经济体,使美元恢复温和贬值趋势。

能源风险是美元走势的关键

“随着霍尔木兹海峡风险和能源中断的临近,市场处于观望状态。调查数据显示,初现能源冲击迹象。局势升级将引发风险厌恶;可信的降级则有利于全球风险资产和美元走软。”

“能源冲击在调查数据中日益明显,威胁到预期的情绪改善。近期全球制造业采购经理人指数显示供应商交货时间延长、投入成本上升和产出价格上涨,反映出与中东冲突相关的航运瓶颈和航班中断。”

“展望未来,若针对能源基础设施的局势急剧升级,可能引发决定性的风险厌恶走势。相反,可信的降级迹象应促使美元恢复温和贬值趋势,因为能源风险缓解将有利于非美国经济体和全球风险资产。”

(本文由人工智能工具协助生成,编辑审核。)

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