英國 三月 S&P Global Services PMI为50.5，低于预期51.2

United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI below forecasts (51.2) in March: Actual (50.5)

法国兴业银行（Societe Generale）商品指南分析（CCA）团队，由Michael Haigh、Ben Hoff和Jeremy Sellem领导，指出布伦特原油现货价格为141美元/桶，反映出霍尔木兹海峡的通行流量仍受阻，导致实物供应极度紧张。他们的情景分析涵盖了从受控升级到长期冲突及关键通道关闭的多种结果，布伦特油价区间从约125美元/桶到可能超过200美元/桶不等，库存仅会在2026年底前逐步恢复正常。

周二欧洲时段，道琼斯期货下跌0.2%，至约46,800点，接近美国常规开盘价。同时，标普500和纳斯达克100期货分别下跌0.34%和0.45%，至约6,620点和24,250点（撰写时）。

Dow Jones futures fall 0.2% to near 46,800 during European hours on Tuesday, ahead of the regular United States (US) open. Meanwhile, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures also decline 0.34% and 0.45% to near 6,620 and 24,250, respectively, at the time of writing.

Societe Generale’s Commodity Compass Analytics (CCA) team, led by Michael Haigh, Ben Hoff and Jeremy Sellem, highlights that Dated Brent at $141/bbl reflects severe physical tightness as Strait of Hormuz flows remain impaired.

荷兰国际集团（ING）的克里斯·特纳指出，美元（USD）在投资者等待与美伊冲突相关的白宫最后期限以及能源价格高企的背景下仍然受到支撑。强劲的美国就业数据和韧性的经济活动可能使市场在油价进一步上涨时定价美联储（Fed）加息。特纳预计，在地缘政治不确定性持续的情况下，美元指数（DXY）将在一个明确的区间内保持坚挺。

欧洲央行（ECB）政策制定者、比利时央行行长皮埃尔·温施（Pierre Wunsch）在《华尔街日报》（WSJ）周一进行并于周二发布的“What's News”播客中表示，央行可能会在四月会议上加息，以限制能源危机对其他商品和服务价格的影响。

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and the head of Belgium's central bank, Pierre Wunsch, said in the Wall Street Journal’s (WSJ) What's News podcast conducted on Monday and released on Tuesday that the central bank could deliver an interest rate hike in the April meeting to limit the effect of