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Oil: War risk and supply headlines support prices – Commerzbank

Commerzbank analysts highlight that Brent has climbed above $111 per barrel as the Iran conflict continues and Trump links any ceasefire deal to free Oil traffic through the Strait of Hormus. The IEA warns against fuel hoarding during the Iran war, while OPEC+ agrees a modest quota hike for May and voices concern over attacks on energy infrastructure.

Iran conflict and OPEC+ keep Brent elevated

"Today, focus looks set to remain firmly on developments in the Middle East. While attacks have continued over the weekend, latest sources reports about a last minute ceasefire proposal and Trump's extension of a deadline to Tuesday night offer a glimmer of hope. So far, Iran has rejected a ceasefire. Meanwhile, Brent futures have risen considerably over the weekend, with oil now trading above $111/bbl."

"Trump shifts deadline from today to Tuesday 8pm E.T., threatens to strike key infrastructure by midnight if no deal is made. Says the entire country "can be taken out in one night". Trump says that free oil traffic through Strait of Hormus must be part of any deal."

"IEA warns countries against hoarding fuel during Iran war (FT). OPEC+ agrees 206K b/d quota hike for May, expresses concern over attacks on energy infrastructure."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

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AUD: Energy shock threatens fragile consumption – TD Securities

TD Securities analysts highlight a record monthly rise in the Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge, pushing headline and trimmed mean inflation to their highest non-COVID levels since 2008. At the same time, Australian household spending growth is modest and momentum is slowing.

DXY:能源冲击持续支撑美元需求 – BBH

布朗兄弟哈里曼(BBH)的埃利亚斯·哈达德指出,伊朗冲突引发的长期能源冲击加剧了金融稳定风险,并使美元的强势超出利差所暗示的水平。随着布伦特油价仍低于120美元且全球风险资产停滞,BBH预计短期内美元将走强,但从周期性角度保持中性,从结构性角度对美元持看跌态度。

DXY: Energy shock keeps Dollar bid – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that a prolonged energy shock from the Iran conflict heightens financial stability risks and supports the Dollar beyond what rate differentials imply.