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MUFG’s Head of Research Derek Halpenny argues that rising Oil and gasoline prices from the Middle East conflict are set to push US inflation higher, with March CPI expected to jump. He highlights a sharp rise in ISM Services prices paid and weakening employment indices. While Fed minutes may sound more hawkish, MUFG still anticipates future rate cuts as growth fundamentals remain softer.
"The fact that the traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is reportedly picking up may well help to cap the price of crude oil over the short-term (and explain that backwardation) but the inflation and growth risks will continue to increase going forward and this week will provide some insight into the initial inflation impact with the release of the March CPI report on Friday."
"The headline MoM CPI rate is expected to pick up from 0.3% in February to 1.0% in March – that would be the biggest gain since June 2022 soon after the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine."
"The inflation hit from the Middle East conflict will feed through quickly and yesterday’s ISM Services report revealed a sharp jump in the Price Paid index, from 63.0 in February to 70.7 in March, the highest reading since October 2022. The one-month change in the index level was the largest since 2012."
"The price of gasoline is one inflation channel where the impact of the conflict is very evident to see. The price increase in the AAA daily gasoline per gallon price in March was 36.2% and the price so far in April has continued to gain each day. The increases have not yet had a notable impact on consumer confidence but that is likely to change over the coming weeks as the inflation impact broadens out, especially if the ISM Services employment index is correctly indicating a downturn in the jobs market."
"The minutes from the FOMC meeting in March will also be released this week (Wednesday) and is likely to reveal division over the policy outlook ahead. The median dot for 2026 revealed in March was 3.375% - implying one rate cut this year. But the assumption built into that median dot was very much a weak labour market and hence the danger over the short-term is for the rhetoric to skew more hawkishly following the NFP data last week."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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MUFG’s Head of Research Derek Halpenny argues that rising Oil and gasoline prices from the Middle East conflict are set to push US inflation higher, with March CPI expected to jump. He highlights a sharp rise in ISM Services prices paid and weakening employment indices.
星展集团研究部的Eugene Leow指出，尽管存在潜在停火和霍尔木兹海峡周边的 renewed 威胁等相互矛盾的地缘政治消息，黄金价格仍保持相对稳定。他认为，随着美国实际收益率升至接近2%的上限，黄金仍处于调整阶段，预计将在4500-5000美元区间内震荡，偏向上涨，具体取决于地缘政治发展和美元走弱情况。
DBS Group Research’s Eugene Leow notes that Gold has stayed relatively stable despite conflicting geopolitical news, including a potential ceasefire and renewed threats around the Strait of Hormuz.
能源成本上升推高建筑材料价格。生产商使用的煤炭比以往减少，但与2022年相比，他们对石油和天然气的依赖程度相同。因此，中东冲突引发的价格上涨很可能会转嫁给买家。承包商应为投入成本上升做好准备。
TD Securities’ commodity team argues that prolonged disruption in the Persian Gulf and blocked flows through the Strait of Hormuz leave Oil poised for another sharp leg higher.
道明证券（TD Securities）商品团队认为，波斯湾的长期中断以及霍尔木兹海峡的流量阻塞使得油价有望迎来另一轮大幅上涨。他们认为，如果战争持续，油价有望上涨50美元或更多，即使敌对行动很快结束，90-100美元的油价也可能持续到2027年。
The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that Iran has cut off direct communications with the United States (US) following President Donald Trump's threat to destroy Iran's whole civilization.
《华尔街日报》周二报道，伊朗已切断与美国的直接通讯，此前总统唐纳德·特朗普威胁要摧毁伊朗的整个文明。
Kit Juckes at Societe Generale highlights Sweden as the only G10 economy forecast to grow faster than the United States (US) this year, yet notes the Swedish Krona (SEK) is currently the weakest G10 currency.