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TD Securities analysts review the latest Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decision, noting the cash rate was held at 2.25% while inflation forecasts were revised sharply higher for Q1 and Q2. The Bank’s communication reaffirmed a tightening bias, with discussion of a pre-emptive hike and risks that the hiking cycle could start earlier than TD’s current February next-year call.
"The RBNZ kept the cash rate on hold at 2.25% as expected."
"Today's release revealed the Bank now expects headline inflation to print at 3% y/y for Q1 and 4.2% y/y in Q2 (assuming crude <$100), the print for Q2 well off the 2.7% Feb MPS forecast."
"Our read of today's release if anything reaffirms the Bank's bias to tighten."
"The Board did discuss a pre-emptive hike but held off given "…this could cause unnecessary volatility in output and employment if the conflict was resolved in the near term or if the economic outlook weakens by more than currently expected"."
"The Bank's Feb MPS OCR forecast implied a cash rate hike by the end of this year but given the points highlighted above there is a risk the RBNZ acts earlier, and hence to our call for the hike cycle to begin in Feb next year."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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TD Securities analysts review the latest Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decision, noting the cash rate was held at 2.25% while inflation forecasts were revised sharply higher for Q1 and Q2.
德国商业银行（Commerzbank）的Carsten Fritsch报道，继中东地区14天停火后，黄金价格跳涨至每盎司4855美元，涨幅达3%，表现不同于典型的避险资产。此次上涨与油价下跌、通胀风险降低以及利率预期走软有关，这些因素推动债券收益率下降。未来走势取决于是否能达成持久和平协议。
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is trading higher against the US Dollar (USD) for the third consecutive day on Wednesday, boosted by investors’ optimism about the ceasefire in Iran.
道明证券分析师回顾了新西兰储备银行（RBNZ）的最新决定，指出现金利率维持在2.25%，同时对第一季度和第二季度的通胀预测大幅上调。该行的沟通重申了紧缩倾向，讨论了预防性加息以及加息周期可能比道明证券当前预测的明年二月更早开始的风险。
United States MBA Mortgage Applications up to -0.8% in April 3 from previous -10.4%
美國 四月 3 MBA Mortgage Applications从前值-10.4%增加至-0.8%
The Indian Rupee (INR) jumps to a fresh over three-week high against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday. The USD/INR pair slides to near 92.30 as the US Dollar weakens and global oil prices nosedive, following a temporary ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran.
周三，澳元（AUD）连续第三天兑美元（USD）走高，受投资者对伊朗停火的乐观情绪提振。然而，该货币对在欧洲交易时段盘中高点0.7084后回落，截至发稿时回到约0.7040水平，随着美伊协议尘埃落定，市场情绪趋于平稳。
The US Dollar (USD) accelerated its reversal against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Wednesday, as investors pared back US Dollar long positions following the announcement of a ceasefire in Iran.