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Chinese Yuan: PBoC stance and valuation debate guide currency path – MUFG
Halpenny highlights a new PBoC document defending China’s FX policy and rejecting claims that CNY drives its trade surplus, instead pointing to manufacturing competitiveness. He notes BIS REER data showing a 20% fall from the 2022 peak and IMF estimates of 12–20% undervaluation, suggesting CNY is undervalued but only partly explains China’s export strength.
Asia FX: Trade negotiations and resilient macro backdrop – MUFG
MUFG’s Michael Wan highlights a mixed global backdrop for Asian currencies, with US Treasuries rallying and the US Dollar (USD) somewhat weaker, while tech stocks decline. He notes resilient Asia macro data, including strong Taiwan exports and South Korea’s current account.
Singapore: Policy slope tightening view – DBS
DBS Group Research expects the Monetary Authority of Singapore to slightly increase the SGD NEER policy band slope at the October review, while keeping the width and centre unchanged. The team, led by Taimur Baig, anticipates calibrated tightening driven by import cost pressures and resilient growth, alongside strong Q3 2026 GDP supported by AI-led trade and financial sector strength.
Canada loses 68.3K jobs and the Loonie falls to an 18-month low
Canada lost 68.3K jobs in September against a forecast for a 7K gain, and with August's 41.7K loss it has given back all of its net job gains for 2026.
British Pound holds ground as US Consumer Sentiment deteriorates
The Pound Sterling (GBP) holds firm against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, which posts modest gains against a basket of six currencies, while US consumers grow pessimistic about the economy as the US-Iran conflict drags on for another week.
France: Budget politics and market testing – Rabobank
Rabobank's Senior Economist Maartje Wijffelaars assesses French budget negotiations starting next week in Parliament, noting protests and reluctance for austerity. She highlights Le Pen’s preference for a bad budget over none and possible use of Article 49.3.
New Zealand Dollar edges higher on softer US yields, Fed hike bets cap recovery
NZD/USD trades around 0.5605 on Friday at the time of writing, posting a modest gain of 0.06% on the day, but more broadly continuing to consolidate near its recent lows.
Japan: Bond outflows reshape global yields - Commerzbank
Commerzbank's Volkmar Baur highlights Japanese investors' net selling of foreign bonds and its implications for global yields. Although Japanese investors have recently returned as buyers of French bonds, their selling of US bonds has provided some support to the euro against the dollar.
Poland: Inflation outlook stabilises – ING
ING economists Adam Antoniak and David Havrlant expect Poland’s final September CPI, due Wednesday, to confirm headline inflation at 4% year-on-year, with core inflation easing and price growth concentrated in fuels and related services. They note improved short-term inflation prospects thanks to renewed cuts in fuel excise duty and VAT, and project headline CPI in a 3.5–4.0% range by year-end.
Canada: Gradual improvement expected – RBC
Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economist Claire Fan notes Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September, mainly in public sectors, reversing much of summer gains and leaving year-to-date employment at -41,000. She highlights volatility in monthly data and stresses the unemployment rate remains below last year. Fan expects earlier labour market progress to hold and the unemployment rate to edge lower through 2026.
United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index increased to 47.3 in October from previous 46.3
United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index increased to 47.3 in October from previous 46.3
United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations increased to 4.7% in October from previous 4.6%
United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations increased to 4.7% in October from previous 4.6%
United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation up to 3.5% in October from previous 3.4%
United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation up to 3.5% in October from previous 3.4%