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WTI Price Forecast: Rejection at the 200-day SMA keeps bears in control
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil edges lower on Thursday, erasing all of the previous day's gains as traders reassess the supply risks stemming from renewed US-Iran tensions. At the time of writing, WTI is trading around $71.75, down 3.77% on the day.
European natural gas: Tight storage supports prices – ING
ING’s Warren Patterson notes that European natural gas prices have held up better than Oil as LNG supply recovery has been modest and Middle East flows remain disrupted. Heatwaves have boosted demand, leaving EU storage just above 50%, well below the five-year average.
United States Dollar Index falls as Middle East calm cools inflation fears
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, is down 0.14% to 100.93 on Thursday as tensions in the Middle East ease, driving Oil prices lower and trimming Federal Reserve (Fed) hawkish bets spurred by the energy shock.
US Dollar: Fed minutes flag supply-driven inflation risks – TD Securities
TD Securities strategists highlight that the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes showed rising concern over inflation risks, even as the United States (US) labor market remains stable.
Brent: Supply recovery meets weak China demand – ING
ING’s Warren Patterson notes that Oil prices fell after the US–Iran Memorandum of Understanding allowed Persian Gulf supply to recover faster than expected, while demand lagged.
Oil: Strait of Hormuz risks keep prices supported – BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights that Oil is back in focus as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz nears a standstill and ceasefire risks rise. iFlow data show energy equities flows stabilizing after June profit-taking, with valuations and under-ownership becoming more attractive.
US Dollar: Fed minutes flag supply-driven inflation risks – TD Securities
TD Securities strategists highlight that the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes showed rising concern over inflation risks, even as the United States (US) labor market remains stable.
WTI slips below $74 after recent rally, Middle East tensions limit the downside
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades lower on Thursday and hovers around $73.10 at the time of writing, down 1.95% on the day as investors take profits following two consecutive days of strong gains.
US Dollar Index: Slips despite yield support – DBS
DBS Group Research economist Philip Wee notes the US Dollar Index (DXY) slipped from 101.28 to 101 late in the US session, even as the US Treasury 2Y yield rose and crude Oil stayed supported by Middle East tensions.
US Dollar Index: Fed hawks supported by energy spike – ING
ING’s Chris Turner notes that higher Oil prices and Gulf tensions have driven a bigger reaction in rates than in FX, with Brent near $80 supporting Fed hawks. The US Dollar (USD) is expected to stay firm versus low-yielders, while carry trades in Emerging Markets (EM) have been unwound.
Oil: Rising geopolitical risks and Russian diesel ban – ING
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Oil has extended its rally as renewed US-Iran tensions threaten the fragile ceasefire and disrupt flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil: Risk premium returns on Gulf supply concerns – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen argues that recent US policy towards Iran has reversed market expectations of a rapid normalisation in Gulf energy supplies, challenging earlier pricing of an Oil supply glut.
Indian Rupee regains ground despite higher oil prices
The Indian Rupee (INR) opens higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday. The USD/INR pair drops to near 95.40 as the US Dollar ticks lower; however, the outlook of the pair remains bullish as renewed Middle East hostilities have boosted oil prices.