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Euro: Political risk weighs but downside seen limited – ABN AMRO
ABN AMRO strategist Georgette Boele notes that changes in interest rate spreads have encouraged speculative short Euro positions, while fiscal and political uncertainty in France and Spain has historically coincided with Euro (EUR) weakness versus the US Dollar (USD).
Swiss Franc: Safe-haven demand keeps CHF firm against Euro – Rabobank
Rabobank expects EUR/CHF to remain close to the 0.93 area in the coming weeks as Eurozone fiscal tensions continue to support safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc.
Indian Rupee: RBI tightening fails to halt INR slide – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 25 bps rate hike to 5.50% failed to support the Indian Rupee.
Polish Zloty: Downtrend eyes 4.48 on firm support – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s Central and Eastern European (CEE) strategy team expects the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to keep rates at 3.75% today, with Governor Glapiński likely to flag inflation risks and prepare markets for a November hike. They see a hawkish stance offering some Polish Zloty (PLN) support but still expect EUR/PLN to trade above 4.35 given geopolitical and external risks, after the pair extended gains toward 4.40/4.41 resistance.
United States MBA Mortgage Applications up to -4.2% in October 2 from previous -6%
United States MBA Mortgage Applications up to -4.2% in October 2 from previous -6%
Swiss Franc retreats further, US Dollar firms up with Fed minutes in focus
The Swiss Franc (CHF) loses ground for the third consecutive day against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, retracing the rebound witnessed late last week.
ECB’s Pereira: No second-round inflation effects at present
European Central Bank (ECB) official and Governor of the Bank of Portugal Santos Pereira said during the European trading session has ruled out fears of second-round inflation effects. Pereira advised that France should pursue fiscal prudence.
Japanese Yen: Downside risks build against US Dollar near 158.50 – MUFG
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny highlights growing downside risks for the Japanese Yen versus the US Dollar as USD/JPY tests its 200-day moving average near 158.50.
Swedish Krona: Technical setup points to further weakness – Societe Generale
Societe Generale notes USD/SEK broke out of a large base in September, extending its rebound and recently posting an interim high near 10.10 before a brief pullback.
Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $60.21 per troy ounce, down 0.82% from the $60.71 it cost on Tuesday.
Australian Dollar: Neutral outlook inside tight range against US Dollar – UOB
United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that AUD/USD extended its recent gains on Tuesday, helped by improved risk appetite, but they still characterise the near-term move as only a tentative recovery.
Euro: OAT repricing keeps downside bias against US Dollar – MUFG
Halpenny argues that last week’s sharp widening of the OAT/Bund spread to 150 bps looked overdone, with French bonds now retracing from oversold levels as global fixed income selling eases. He sees Marine Le Pen’s aggressive consolidation plan as unlikely to materially change OAT risk ahead of next year’s election. MUFG expects EUR/USD downside risks to prevail.
Polish Zloty: NBP cautious as inflation overshoots – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose highlights that Poland’s National Bank (NBP) is expected to keep its base rate at 3.75% in October, with guidance from Thursday’s press conference key. Several MPC members now see scope for rate hikes if projections show inflation above 4% next year.