Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister analyses EUR/USD options, noting that since the Iran conflict the relationship between implied volatility and risk reversals has reverted towards its pre–"Liberation Day" pattern.
Commerzbank strategist Hauke Siemßen argues that ECB expectations will dominate trading, with forwards now fully pricing the first rate hike by September and only a 50% chance of another move by year-end.
The EUR/USD pair faces slight pressure near 1.1550 during the European trading session on Wednesday after a two-day recovery move. The major currency pair struggles as the US Dollar strives to regain ground ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement at 18:00 GMT.
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong revise their Brent Oil profile higher as the US–Iran conflict keeps the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut and Oil flows near a standstill.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) broadly unchanged on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $79.37 per troy ounce, broadly unchanged 0.06% from the $79.33 it cost on Tuesday.
The Indian Rupee (INR) posts a fresh all-time low against the US Dollar (USD) at 93.00 during India's afternoon trading hours on Wednesday.
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note the Australian Dollar recovered after the RBA’s 5–4 split decision to deliver a second consecutive 25bp hike to 4.10%, with Governor Bullock’s remarks seen as hawkish.
Societe Generale economists expect the BoC to keep its policy rate at 2.25%, despite weaker employment and lower CPI. Markets now price about 33 bps of tightening by year-end after the Iran conflict.
USD/JPY remains under pressure for a third straight session, trading near 159.00 during Asian hours on Wednesday.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% at its Wednesday meeting, effectively extending the pause it signalled back in January.
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny expects the FOMC to keep policy options open, with limited changes to the Summary of Economic Projections and no alteration to the median dot profile. MUFG anticipates balanced Fed communication and subdued FX and rates volatility.
ING commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey report that Gold is trading in a narrow range as the US‑Israeli conflict with Iran extends. A firmer Dollar and higher real yields offset safe‑haven demand from Middle East tensions.
